First, we must understand what an existential risk is:
Existential risks are defined as “risks that threaten the destruction of humanity’s long-term potential.” … Existential risks are a sub-class of global catastrophic risks, where the damage is not only global but also terminal and permanent, preventing recovery and thereby affecting both current and all future generations.
Anthropogenic vs Non-Anthropogenic
Potential risks are classified as anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic hazards. An anthropogenic hazard is a hazard caused by humans, while a non-anthropogenic hazard is naturally occurring. Some hazards on this list can be either anthopogenic or non-anthropogenic, such as pandemics.
A Web of Existential Threats
It’s imperative to understand the interaction of these threats, and that they can be combined laterally, and stacked linearly or exponentially, creating a web.
An example of combined threats may be biotechnology and pandemics. Where biotechnology maybe useful to address pandemics, it can also unintentionally or maliciously be used to create pandemics Knowing this, bioengineers may invest further into gain of function research, creating a spiral of risk.
An example of stacked threats may be overpopulation leading to unsustainable agriculture, leading to species extinction and ecosystem collapse, leading to war over food. This war may come in the form of cyber-attacks, which may successfully hijack nuclear weapons, which may escalate to global nuclear war.
Asteroid Impact
An asteroid or comet impact could cause widespread destruction and loss of life. The impact of a large object could release a massive amount of energy, causing blast waves, earthquakes, and tsunamis. The dust and debris from the impact could also block out sunlight and cause a “nuclear winter” effect that could significantly impact global climate and agriculture. Scientists are currently tracking potentially hazardous asteroids and working on ways to deflect or destroy them if they pose a threat.
Probability: 1 in 1 million.
Solar Storms
A severe solar storm could cause widespread disruption to communication and power grids, potentially leading to long-term blackouts and significant economic and social damage. The charged particles from a solar storm could also pose a risk to human health and radiation-sensitive electronics. Space agencies and power companies are monitoring the sun and working on ways to improve the resilience of critical infrastructure.
Probability: It’s difficult to estimate the likelihood of extinction caused by a severe solar storm, but scientists believe the likelihood of a severe solar storm is around 12% per decade.
Other Cosmic Threats
In addition to solar flares and asteroids, other cosmic threats could have catastrophic consequences for life on Earth.
- Gamma-ray bursts: Gamma-ray bursts are intense bursts of high-energy radiation that occur in distant galaxies. If a gamma-ray burst were to occur within our own Milky Way galaxy and were directed towards Earth, it could strip away the ozone layer and expose life on Earth to dangerous levels of ultraviolet radiation. The probability of such an event occurring is low, but the potential consequences are so severe that they cannot be ignored.
- Supernovae: A nearby supernova explosion could release large amounts of energy and radiation, potentially damaging the Earth’s atmosphere and leading to a mass extinction event. The probability of a supernova occurring in the near future is relatively low, but the consequences could be catastrophic.
- Cosmic rays: Cosmic rays are high-energy particles that originate from outside the solar system. They can penetrate deep into the Earth’s atmosphere and cause damage to biological tissue, potentially leading to an increased risk of cancer or other health problems. While the overall risk of cosmic rays is relatively low, they could pose a greater threat to humans in space or on long-duration space missions.
- Galactic center events: The center of our Milky Way galaxy contains a supermassive black hole, as well as a dense region of stars and gas. If a gas cloud were to fall into the black hole or if stars were to collide, it could trigger a powerful burst of high-energy radiation, which could cause significant damage to Earth’s ozone layer and expose us to harmful levels of radiation.
- Cosmic strings: Cosmic strings are hypothetical, long, thin objects that are thought to have formed in the early universe. If a cosmic string were to pass through the solar system, it could cause significant gravitational disruptions that could affect the orbits of planets and potentially even cause a collision with Earth.
Probability: 1 in 1 billion.
Nanotechnology
The engineering of materials and devices at a scale of nanometers has the potential to revolutionize numerous fields, from medicine to manufacturing. However, it also poses the risk of unintended consequences, including the development of powerful new weapons and the creation of self-replicating nanobots that could wreak havoc on the environment and human health. The potential for these negative outcomes, while still low, is significant enough that experts have identified nanotechnology as an existential risk.
Probability: Low.
Volcanic Eruptions
A super-volcanic eruption could release a massive amount of ash and gas, causing environmental damage and potentially leading to a “volcanic winter” that could have significant impacts on global agriculture and ecosystems. The sulfur dioxide gas released by a volcanic eruption could also lead to acid rain and harm human health. Scientists are monitoring volcanic activity around the world to identify potential hazards and prepare for potential eruptions.
Probability: 1 in 10,000.
Geoengineering
Large-scale geoengineering projects could have unintended consequences that lead to environmental and social harm. There are many forms of geoengineering that offer solutions to humanity’s problems yet carry an unknown risk.
- Solar Radiation Management (SRM): This involves reflecting sunlight back into space to reduce the amount of solar radiation that reaches the Earth’s surface. While SRM could help to cool the Earth and counteract the warming effects of greenhouse gases, it also has the potential to create unintended consequences, such as changing weather patterns, damaging the ozone layer, or altering the ocean’s circulation patterns.
- Ocean fertilization: This involves adding nutrients to the ocean to stimulate the growth of algae, which can help absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, it could also disrupt marine ecosystems, create “dead zones” where there is not enough oxygen for other marine life to survive, and create unintended consequences such as the production of greenhouse gases like methane.
- Artificially enhancing carbon sequestration: This involves using technology to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it underground or in the ocean. While this could help to reduce the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it could also create unintended consequences such as depleting oxygen levels in the ocean or causing geological instability in the areas where the carbon is stored.
- Geoengineering for military purposes: While not a geoengineering technique per se, some have suggested that geoengineering could be used for military purposes, such as modifying the weather to create droughts or flooding in enemy countries. Such applications would raise ethical and security concerns, and could also have unintended consequences such as damaging food production or ecosystems.
Probability: The probability of unintended consequences is almost unpredictable; many scientists and policymakers believe geoengineering should be pursued with extreme caution.
Nuclear War
Nuclear war is considered an existential threat because it has the potential to cause catastrophic and widespread destruction on a global scale. Even a single nuclear weapon can release an immense amount of energy and heat, causing devastating blast effects and firestorms that can kill millions of people and destroy entire cities. A nuclear war could also have far-reaching and long-lasting environmental and societal impacts, such as global climate disruption, famine, and disease, as well as widespread social and economic disruption. In addition, the use of nuclear weapons could trigger a larger conflict, potentially leading to a full-scale global war. A full escalation could lead to “nuclear winter“.
Probability: 1 in 1,000. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which maintains the “Doomsday Clock” as a symbol of the world’s proximity to global catastrophe, currently sets the clock at 100 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been.
Climate Change
Changes to the Earth’s climate may have a range of devastating impacts. A warming climate results in rising sea levels, more frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, floods, and storms. These changes can lead to major environmental and societal consequences, such as food and water shortages, displacement of people, and the extinction of numerous plant and animal species.
An ice age is a period of long-term cooling of the Earth’s climate, resulting in a significant expansion of ice sheets and glaciers. While it is not currently a pressing threat, it could lead to crop failures, energy supply disruptions, and extreme weather events, such as snowstorms and blizzards, which could have further negative impacts on infrastructure, transportation, and human health, even displacing large populations.
Probability: 1 in 1,000. The climate is always changing. We are currently experiencing warming on a global scale that is unprecedented in the ~400 years we have been recording temperatures.
Red Giant Sun
The sun, like all stars, has a finite lifespan – it will run out of hydrogen fuel and begin to expand into a red giant. As the sun expands, it will swallow up Mercury, Venus, and possibly even Earth, rendering our planet uninhabitable. This is a natural process that has been observed in other stars, and there is no way to stop it. While it may seem far off, the eventual expansion of the sun is an existential threat to humanity as it will render the planet we call home uninhabitable, forcing us to find a new home elsewhere in the universe or face extinction.
Probability: Stock up on sunscreen, it’s pretty much inevitable (in about 5 billion years).
Species Extinction
Species extinction is an existential threat because it can destabilize ecosystems, leading to a cascade of effects that can harm humans and other species. The loss of biodiversity can make ecosystems more vulnerable to disturbances such as climate change, invasive species, and diseases. This can lead to a decline in ecosystem services, such as pollination, nutrient cycling, and water purification, that are crucial for human well-being. Moreover, as species go extinct, we lose potential sources of food, medicine, and other resources. Finally, the extinction of charismatic species can also have a psychological impact on humans, diminishing our sense of connection to the natural world.
Probability: Extinction is the norm, not the exception. Nonetheless, it is taking place at a staggering rate and is already causing a variety of difficulties in many parts of the world.
Unsustainable Agriculture
Non-sustainable agriculture can have significant impacts on the environment, including soil erosion, water depletion, and deforestation. Overuse of pesticides and fertilizers can lead to soil degradation, water contamination, and a decline in biodiversity, while intensive animal agriculture can contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. The degradation of the environment caused by non-sustainable agriculture could lead to a decline in food production and increased food insecurity, potentially leading to political and social instability. If left unchecked, non-sustainable agriculture could pose an existential threat by undermining the very foundation of human civilization: access to food and water.
Probability: This threat of unsustainable agriculture directly correlates to overpopulation.
Overpopulation
Overpopulation is considered an existential threat due to the strain it places on resources and the potential for social and environmental upheaval. As the world population continues to grow, resources such as food, water, and energy become increasingly scarce. This can lead to conflict over resources and exacerbate poverty, hunger, and social inequality. In addition, overpopulation can result in environmental degradation, such as deforestation, desertification, and pollution, which can have long-lasting effects on the planet’s ecosystems.
Additionally, a declining population can lead to a decrease in innovation and technological progress, as fewer individuals are available to contribute to the economy and society. This can ultimately limit humanity’s ability to address future challenges. Therefore, while overpopulation can pose significant challenges, population decline also presents a potential threat.
Probability: While birth rates have been decreasing in many parts of the world, population growth is still projected to continue for several decades
Pandemics
Pandemics are an existential threat to humanity, with the potential to cause widespread illness and death, disrupt economies and societies, and threaten global security. The Black Death, which resulted in the death of 30-50% of the total population of Europe, is an example of a pandemic that had far-reaching social, economic, and political consequences.
Habitat destruction and animal agriculture contribute to the emergence and spread of pandemics by increasing the risk of disease transmission between animals and humans. Antibiotic resistance and biotechnology are also changing the way we think about pandemics.
Probability: 1 in 10,000. Highly infectious, deadly diseases are inevitable. The only question is if we can prevent them from becoming pandemics.
Biotechnology
Biotechnology has the potential to be an existential threat because it can be used to create new and dangerous pathogens that could cause devastating pandemics. The rapid pace of technological advancement in biotech has made it easier than ever to manipulate genetic material, leading to concerns that scientists could accidentally or intentionally create a superbug or engineered virus that is resistant to current treatments and could spread rapidly around the world, leading to mass casualties. Additionally, the development of bioweapons could result in the release of deadly viruses or bacteria that could cause a catastrophic pandemic, with potential for global impact.
Probability: 1 in 30. Given the rapidly advancing technology and potential for unintended consequences, biotechnology remains a significant concern.
Artificial Intelligence
While many people are concerned with AI becoming too powerful and misaligned with human values a more immediate possibility is AI being used for malicious purposes, such as by nation-states or other bad actors to develop autonomous weapons or to launch cyber-attacks.
There is also a risk of unintended consequences from the development and deployment of AI, such as the automation of jobs leading to social and economic upheaval, or the use of AI in decision-making systems resulting in biased or discriminatory outcomes.
Probability: 1 in 10. Some experts believe that the development of advanced AI could pose a significant risk to humanity, while others are more optimistic about its potential benefits.
Cyber Attacks
Cyber-attacks can be an existential threat to humanity as they can potentially disrupt critical infrastructure, such as power grids, communication networks, and financial systems. This can lead to widespread societal chaos, economic collapse, and loss of life. In addition, cyber-attacks can target key military systems, compromising national security and potentially leading to armed conflicts. The probability of a catastrophic cyber-attack is difficult to estimate, but it is widely acknowledged that the threat is growing with the increasing reliance on technology and interconnectedness of computer systems.
Probability: Increasingly likely.
Totalitarianism
There are worse existential threats to humanity that extinction. We can also experience a total loss of human potentiality due to being locked in a spiraling dystopia, such as that of George Orwell’s 1984. China’s social credit system and the increased monitoring of citizens by the Five Eyes alliance could potentially become irrecoverably totalitarian. It’s also possible that artificial intelligence could become totalitarian, or there might even be fascist aliens.
Probability: Definitely look out for fascist aliens.
Intergalactic Highways
The construction of an intergalactic highway could spell doom for our beloved planet. Should Earth be in the path of a hyperspace bypass, we may be faced with an alien demolition fleet with as much sympathy for us as we have for the animals whose habitats we destroy in order to build our roads.
Probability: Trying to predict the future is a mug’s game. But increasingly it’s a game we all have to play because the world is changing so fast and we need to have some sort of idea of what the future’s actually going to be like because we are going to have to live there, probably next week.
